Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 2026-27
The Tampa Bay Lightning are 13-5-2 (28 points), 1st in the Atlantic Division. They make the playoffs in 85% of our simulations and win the Stanley Cup in 5%.
Updated · Through games of November 14, 2026 · 20 of 84 games played per team on average
85%Make playoffs
29%Win Atlantic
23%Reach conf. finals
5%Win Stanley Cup
105 pointsProjected points
7thPower rating rank
64Games left (33 home)
L1Streak
Next 10 games
| Date | Opponent | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Tue, Nov 17 | vs Washington Capitals (10-8-0) | 59% |
| Thu, Nov 19 | vs Edmonton Oilers (15-3-3) | 50% |
| Sun, Nov 22 | vs Buffalo Sabres (8-8-4) | 65% |
| Wed, Nov 25 | vs Carolina Hurricanes (16-3-2) | 46% |
| Fri, Nov 27 | vs Ottawa Senators (13-6-2) | 56% |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ Florida Panthers (12-7-2) | 51% |
| Wed, Dec 2 | @ Montreal Canadiens (12-4-4) | 51% |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Ottawa Senators (13-6-2) | 50% |
| Mon, Dec 7 | vs Columbus Blue Jackets (7-11-0) | 65% |
| Thu, Dec 10 | vs Boston Bruins (13-6-1) | 51% |
Atlantic standings
| Team | W-L-OTL | PTS | Playoffs | Win div |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 13-5-2 | 28 | 85% | 29% |
| Montreal Canadiens | 12-4-4 | 28 | 73% | 16% |
| Ottawa Senators | 13-6-2 | 28 | 73% | 14% |
| Boston Bruins | 13-6-1 | 27 | 86% | 31% |
| Florida Panthers | 12-7-2 | 26 | 60% | 8% |
| Buffalo Sabres | 8-8-4 | 20 | 11% | <1% |
| Detroit Red Wings | 8-10-3 | 19 | 18% | 1% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 8-12-2 | 18 | 13% | <1% |
Playoff path
| Milestone | Chance |
|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 85% |
| Win the division | 29% |
| Win a first-round series | 45% |
| Reach the conference finals | 23% |
| Reach the Stanley Cup Final | 11% |
| Win the Stanley Cup | 5% |
Frequently asked questions
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning make the playoffs?
Our model gives the Lightning a 85% chance to make the 2027 NHL playoffs. They are 13-5-2 and 1st in the Atlantic Division.
What are the Tampa Bay Lightning' chances to win the Stanley Cup?
5%, with a 11% chance to reach the Stanley Cup Final.
What is the Tampa Bay Lightning' projected record?
The simulations project about 105 points over the 84-game season (now 28 points in 20 games).