NFL Playoff Picture: Week 10
If the 2026 season ended today, these 14 teams would be in the playoffs. Seeds use the NFL's official tiebreakers, and every team's playoff odds come from 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Updated · Standings include every game through Week 9 plus completed Week 10 games.
AFC playoff picture
| Seed | Team | W-L | Spot | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 7-1 | Div | 98% |
| 2 | Denver Broncos | 7-2 | Div | 90% |
| 3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-2 | Div | 98% |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-2 | Div | 84% |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 6-2 | WC | 90% |
| 6 | Cincinnati Bengals | 6-2 | WC | 93% |
| 7 | New England Patriots | 5-4 | WC | 63% |
| Cleveland Browns | 5-4 | Tied | 30% | |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4-5 | 1.0 GB | 18% | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 4-5 | 1.0 GB | 8% | |
| Houston Texans | 3-5 | 1.5 GB | 25% |
NFC playoff picture
| Seed | Team | W-L | Spot | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 7-1 | Div | 97% |
| 2 | Chicago Bears | 7-2 | Div | 87% |
| 3 | New York Giants | 5-3-1 | Div | 60% |
| 4 | Carolina Panthers | 3-5 | Div | 24% |
| 5 | Detroit Lions | 6-2 | WC | 75% |
| 6 | Minnesota Vikings | 6-2 | WC | 82% |
| 7 | Green Bay Packers | 6-3 | WC | 68% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5-4 | 1.0 GB | 45% | |
| Los Angeles Rams | 5-4 | 1.0 GB | 34% | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 4-5 | 2.0 GB | 33% | |
| Washington Commanders | 3-5-1 | 2.5 GB | 13% |
Seeds 1–4 are division leaders, 5–7 are wild cards. The dashed line marks the playoff cutoff; GB = games behind the No. 7 seed. Playoff and division odds are model estimates.
Disagree with the odds? Pick every remaining game and see who gets in, with all the tiebreakers applied.
Open the playoff predictorWild-card matchups if the season ended today
AFC wild-card round
Buffalo Bills (1) – first-round bye
7 New England Patriots at 2 Denver Broncos
6 Cincinnati Bengals at 3 Jacksonville Jaguars
5 Kansas City Chiefs at 4 Pittsburgh Steelers
NFC wild-card round
San Francisco 49ers (1) – first-round bye
7 Green Bay Packers at 2 Chicago Bears
6 Minnesota Vikings at 3 New York Giants
5 Detroit Lions at 4 Carolina Panthers
The bubble
In the AFC, the New England Patriots hold the last wild-card spot at 5-4, with the Cleveland Browns (5-4, 30% to make it) and Las Vegas Raiders (4-5, 18%) closest behind. In the NFC, the Green Bay Packers hold the last wild-card spot at 6-3, with the Seattle Seahawks (5-4, 45% to make it) and Los Angeles Rams (5-4, 34%) closest behind.
Tiebreakers deciding the picture
- Pittsburgh Steelers rank ahead of Cincinnati Bengals on head-to-head (division tiebreaker).
- Detroit Lions rank ahead of Minnesota Vikings on head-to-head (division tiebreaker).
- Carolina Panthers rank ahead of New Orleans Saints on division record (division tiebreaker).
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank ahead of Atlanta Falcons on head-to-head (division tiebreaker).
- Seattle Seahawks rank ahead of Los Angeles Rams on division record (division tiebreaker).
- Jacksonville Jaguars rank ahead of Pittsburgh Steelers on conference record (conference tiebreaker).
- Kansas City Chiefs rank ahead of Cincinnati Bengals on conference record (conference tiebreaker).
- New England Patriots rank ahead of Cleveland Browns on conference record (conference tiebreaker).
Super Bowl favorites
| Team | Record | Playoffs | Win conf. | Win Super Bowl LXI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-2 | 98% | 25% | 14% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 7-1 | 97% | 27% | 14% |
| Buffalo Bills | 7-1 | 98% | 21% | 11% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6-2 | 93% | 17% | 9% |
| Chicago Bears | 7-2 | 87% | 16% | 8% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-2 | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6-2 | 90% | 12% | 6% |
| Detroit Lions | 6-2 | 75% | 10% | 5% |
Every team's playoff chances
Frequently asked questions
Who would make the NFL playoffs if the season ended today?
In the AFC: 1. Buffalo Bills, 2. Denver Broncos, 3. Jacksonville Jaguars, 4. Pittsburgh Steelers, 5. Kansas City Chiefs, 6. Cincinnati Bengals, 7. New England Patriots. In the NFC: 1. San Francisco 49ers, 2. Chicago Bears, 3. New York Giants, 4. Carolina Panthers, 5. Detroit Lions, 6. Minnesota Vikings, 7. Green Bay Packers.
How many teams make the NFL playoffs?
Fourteen: seven per conference. The four division winners are seeded 1 to 4 by record, and the three best non-division winners are the wild cards, seeded 5 to 7. Only the No. 1 seed in each conference gets a first-round bye.
Which teams have the best chance to win the Super Bowl?
Our simulations give the Jacksonville Jaguars (14%), San Francisco 49ers (14%) and Buffalo Bills (11%) the best odds to win Super Bowl LXI.
How often is the NFL playoff picture updated?
Every few hours, and after every game day. Records, seeds and tiebreakers are recalculated from the latest final scores, and the odds come from 20,000 fresh simulations of the remaining schedule.