Las Vegas Raiders Playoff Chances
The Las Vegas Raiders are 4-5 and are 1.0 games behind the final AFC wild-card spot (9th in the conference). Our model gives them a 18% chance to make the playoffs, 3% to win the AFC West and <1% to win Super Bowl LXI.
Updated · Standings include every game through Week 9 plus completed Week 10 games.
If the Raiders miss the postseason, their average projected draft slot is No. 13.7, with a 5% chance at a top-5 pick and <1% at No. 1 (2027 draft order).
Remaining schedule and playoff odds by game
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sun, Nov 15 | vs Seattle Seahawks (5-4) | 42% |
| 11 | Sun, Nov 22 | @ Denver Broncos (7-2) | 35% |
| 12 | Sun, Nov 29 | @ Cleveland Browns (5-4) | 47% |
| 14 | Sun, Dec 13 | vs Los Angeles Chargers (0-8) | 70% |
| 15 | Sun, Dec 20 | vs Denver Broncos (7-2) | 44% |
| 16 | Sun, Dec 27 | vs Tennessee Titans (1-7) | 65% |
| 17 | Sun, Jan 3 | @ Arizona Cardinals (3-6) | 54% |
| 18 | Sun, Jan 10 | @ Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) | 30% |
"Playoffs if W/L" = playoff odds in the simulations where the Raiders won or lost that game. A dash means the game barely moves their odds.
Who should Raiders fans root for in Week 10?
| Game | Root for | Odds if yes | Odds if no |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots @ Lions | Detroit Lions | 20% | 17% |
| Chiefs @ Falcons | Atlanta Falcons | 20% | 17% |
What record gets the Raiders in?
Bars show how often the Raiders finish with each win total; the number above each bar is how often that record made the playoffs.
AFC West race
| Team | W-L | Div | Win div | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 7-2 | 2-1 | 50% | 90% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6-2 | 3-1 | 47% | 90% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4-5 | 1-1 | 3% | 18% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0-8 | 0-3 | 0% | <1% |
Predict the Raiders' season
Click W or L for each remaining game to see the final record and how often that record made the playoffs in our simulations. For every team at once, use the NFL playoff predictor.
2026 results
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Miami Dolphins | W 27-13 |
| 2 | @ Los Angeles Chargers | W 26-14 |
| 3 | @ New Orleans Saints | W 35-27 |
| 4 | vs Kansas City Chiefs | L 27-30 |
| 5 | @ New England Patriots | L 17-45 |
| 6 | vs Buffalo Bills | L 30-33 |
| 7 | vs Los Angeles Rams | L 21-35 |
| 8 | @ New York Jets | W 38-33 |
| 9 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 17-38 |
Frequently asked questions
Can the Las Vegas Raiders still make the playoffs?
Yes. At 4-5, the Raiders make the playoffs in 18% of our 20,000 simulations of the remaining schedule.
What record do the Las Vegas Raiders need to make the playoffs?
In our simulations the Raiders made the playoffs 99% of the time when they finished with 11 wins and 80% of the time with 10 wins. Their most likely final record is 8-9.
What are the Las Vegas Raiders' chances of winning the AFC West?
3%. Denver Broncos lead the division at 7-2.
Who do the Las Vegas Raiders play next?
Against the Seattle Seahawks on November 15, 2026 (Week 10, CBS). Our model gives the Raiders a 42% chance to win.