Buffalo Bills Playoff Chances
The Buffalo Bills are 7-1 and hold the No. 1 seed in the AFC as the AFC East leader. Our model gives them a 98% chance to make the playoffs, 88% to win the AFC East and 11% to win Super Bowl LXI.
Updated · Standings include every game through Week 9 plus completed Week 10 games.
Remaining schedule and playoff odds by game
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sun, Nov 15 | @ New York Jets (2-7) | 69% |
| 11 | Sun, Nov 22 | vs Miami Dolphins (1-7) | 81% |
| 12 | Thu, Nov 26 | vs Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) | 60% |
| 13 | Sun, Dec 6 | @ New England Patriots (5-4) | 56% |
| 14 | Sun, Dec 13 | @ Green Bay Packers (6-3) | 53% |
| 15 | Sat, Dec 19 | vs Chicago Bears (7-2) | 58% |
| 16 | Fri, Dec 25 | @ Denver Broncos (7-2) | 56% |
| 17 | Sun, Jan 3 | @ Miami Dolphins (1-7) | 74% |
| 18 | Sun, Jan 10 | vs New York Jets (2-7) | 77% |
"Playoffs if W/L" = playoff odds in the simulations where the Bills won or lost that game. A dash means the game barely moves their odds.
Who should Bills fans root for in Week 10?
| Game | Root for | Odds if yes | Odds if no |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots @ Lions | Detroit Lions | 98% | 97% |
What record gets the Bills in?
Bars show how often the Bills finish with each win total; the number above each bar is how often that record made the playoffs.
AFC East race
| Team | W-L | Div | Win div | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 7-1 | 0-1 | 88% | 98% |
| New England Patriots | 5-4 | 3-0 | 12% | 63% |
| New York Jets | 2-7 | 0-2 | <1% | 1% |
| Miami Dolphins | 1-7 | 1-1 | <1% | <1% |
Predict the Bills' season
Click W or L for each remaining game to see the final record and how often that record made the playoffs in our simulations. For every team at once, use the NFL playoff predictor.
2026 results
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Houston Texans | W 36-31 |
| 2 | vs Detroit Lions | W 41-31 |
| 3 | vs Los Angeles Chargers | W 24-16 |
| 4 | vs New England Patriots | L 26-29 |
| 5 | @ Los Angeles Rams | W 37-34 |
| 6 | @ Las Vegas Raiders | W 33-30 |
| 8 | vs Baltimore Ravens | W 36-10 |
| 9 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 23-6 |
Frequently asked questions
Can the Buffalo Bills still make the playoffs?
Yes. At 7-1, the Bills make the playoffs in 98% of our 20,000 simulations of the remaining schedule.
What record do the Buffalo Bills need to make the playoffs?
In our simulations the Bills made the playoffs 92% of the time when they finished with 10 wins and 57% of the time with 9 wins. Their most likely final record is 13-4.
What are the Buffalo Bills' chances of winning the AFC East?
88%. They lead the division at 7-1.
Who do the Buffalo Bills play next?
At the New York Jets on November 15, 2026 (Week 10, CBS). Our model gives the Bills a 69% chance to win.