Houston Texans Playoff Chances
The Houston Texans are 3-5 and are 1.5 games behind the final AFC wild-card spot (11th in the conference). Our model gives them a 25% chance to make the playoffs, 6% to win the AFC South and 1% to win Super Bowl LXI.
Updated · Standings include every game through Week 9 plus completed Week 10 games.
If the Texans miss the postseason, their average projected draft slot is No. 14.5, with a 6% chance at a top-5 pick and <1% at No. 1 (2027 draft order).
Remaining schedule and playoff odds by game
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sun, Nov 15 | @ Cleveland Browns (5-4) | 56% |
| 11 | Thu, Nov 19 | vs Indianapolis Colts (2-7) | 69% |
| 12 | Sun, Nov 29 | vs Baltimore Ravens (4-5) | 68% |
| 13 | Sun, Dec 6 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) | 41% |
| 14 | Sun, Dec 13 | @ Washington Commanders (3-5-1) | 57% |
| 15 | Sun, Dec 20 | vs Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) | 37% |
| 16 | Thu, Dec 24 | @ Philadelphia Eagles (2-7) | 66% |
| 17 | Mon, Jan 4 | @ Green Bay Packers (6-3) | 41% |
| 18 | Sun, Jan 10 | vs Tennessee Titans (1-7) | 74% |
"Playoffs if W/L" = playoff odds in the simulations where the Texans won or lost that game. A dash means the game barely moves their odds.
Who should Texans fans root for in Week 10?
| Game | Root for | Odds if yes | Odds if no |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots @ Lions | Detroit Lions | 27% | 23% |
| Steelers @ Bengals | Cincinnati Bengals | 27% | 23% |
| Jaguars @ Titans | Tennessee Titans | 28% | 25% |
| Chargers @ Ravens | Los Angeles Chargers | 27% | 25% |
What record gets the Texans in?
Bars show how often the Texans finish with each win total; the number above each bar is how often that record made the playoffs.
AFC South race
| Team | W-L | Div | Win div | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-2 | 1-1 | 93% | 98% |
| Houston Texans | 3-5 | 2-1 | 6% | 25% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2-7 | 1-2 | <1% | 1% |
| Tennessee Titans | 1-7 | 1-1 | <1% | <1% |
Predict the Texans' season
Click W or L for each remaining game to see the final record and how often that record made the playoffs in our simulations. For every team at once, use the NFL playoff predictor.
2026 results
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Buffalo Bills | L 31-36 |
| 2 | vs Cincinnati Bengals | L 6-20 |
| 3 | @ Indianapolis Colts | L 17-19 |
| 4 | vs Dallas Cowboys | L 30-34 |
| 5 | @ Tennessee Titans | W 26-3 |
| 6 | @ Jacksonville Jaguars | W 34-31 |
| 7 | vs New York Giants | L 21-27 |
| 9 | @ Los Angeles Chargers | W 44-22 |
Frequently asked questions
Can the Houston Texans still make the playoffs?
Yes. At 3-5, the Texans make the playoffs in 25% of our 20,000 simulations of the remaining schedule.
What record do the Houston Texans need to make the playoffs?
In our simulations the Texans made the playoffs 99% of the time when they finished with 11 wins and 81% of the time with 10 wins. Their most likely final record is 8-9.
What are the Houston Texans' chances of winning the AFC South?
6%. Jacksonville Jaguars lead the division at 6-2.
Who do the Houston Texans play next?
At the Cleveland Browns on November 15, 2026 (Week 10, Fox). Our model gives the Texans a 56% chance to win.