Dallas Cowboys Playoff Chances
The Dallas Cowboys are 4-5 and are 2.0 games behind the final NFC wild-card spot (10th in the conference). Our model gives them a 33% chance to make the playoffs, 30% to win the NFC East and 1% to win Super Bowl LXI.
Updated · Standings include every game through Week 9 plus completed Week 10 games.
If the Cowboys miss the postseason, their average projected draft slot is No. 15.0, with a 5% chance at a top-5 pick and <1% at No. 1 (2027 draft order).
Remaining schedule and playoff odds by game
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sun, Nov 15 | vs San Francisco 49ers (7-1) | 38% |
| 11 | Sun, Nov 22 | vs Tennessee Titans (1-7) | 70% |
| 12 | Thu, Nov 26 | vs Philadelphia Eagles (2-7) | 71% |
| 13 | Mon, Dec 7 | @ Seattle Seahawks (5-4) | 38% |
| 15 | Sun, Dec 20 | @ Los Angeles Rams (5-4) | 40% |
| 16 | Sun, Dec 27 | vs Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) | 33% |
| 17 | Sun, Jan 3 | vs New York Giants (5-3-1) | 58% |
| 18 | Sun, Jan 10 | @ Washington Commanders (3-5-1) | 53% |
"Playoffs if W/L" = playoff odds in the simulations where the Cowboys won or lost that game. A dash means the game barely moves their odds.
Who should Cowboys fans root for in Week 10?
| Game | Root for | Odds if yes | Odds if no |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers @ Bengals | Pittsburgh Steelers | 34% | 32% |
What record gets the Cowboys in?
Bars show how often the Cowboys finish with each win total; the number above each bar is how often that record made the playoffs.
NFC East race
| Team | W-L | Div | Win div | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 5-3-1 | 2-1-1 | 58% | 60% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 4-5 | 2-1 | 30% | 33% |
| Washington Commanders | 3-5-1 | 2-2-1 | 11% | 13% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2-7 | 1-3 | 1% | 1% |
Predict the Cowboys' season
Click W or L for each remaining game to see the final record and how often that record made the playoffs in our simulations. For every team at once, use the NFL playoff predictor.
2026 results
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ New York Giants | L 20-28 |
| 2 | vs Washington Commanders | W 37-20 |
| 3 | vs Baltimore Ravens | L 31-34 |
| 4 | @ Houston Texans | W 34-30 |
| 5 | vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L 16-24 |
| 6 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 13-23 |
| 7 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 38-21 |
| 8 | vs Arizona Cardinals | L 30-33 |
| 9 | @ Indianapolis Colts | W 27-23 |
Frequently asked questions
Can the Dallas Cowboys still make the playoffs?
Yes. At 4-5, the Cowboys make the playoffs in 33% of our 20,000 simulations of the remaining schedule.
What record do the Dallas Cowboys need to make the playoffs?
In our simulations the Cowboys made the playoffs 91% of the time when they finished with 10 wins and 53% of the time with 9 wins. Their most likely final record is 8-9.
What are the Dallas Cowboys' chances of winning the NFC East?
30%. New York Giants lead the division at 5-3-1.
Who do the Dallas Cowboys play next?
Against the San Francisco 49ers on November 15, 2026 (Week 10, Fox). Our model gives the Cowboys a 38% chance to win.