Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Chances
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 3-6 and are 3.0 games behind the final NFC wild-card spot (13th in the conference). Our model gives them a 48% chance to make the playoffs, 47% to win the NFC South and 3% to win Super Bowl LXI.
Updated · Standings include every game through Week 9 plus completed Week 10 games.
If the Buccaneers miss the postseason, their average projected draft slot is No. 17.0, with a 4% chance at a top-5 pick and <1% at No. 1 (2027 draft order).
Remaining schedule and playoff odds by game
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sun, Nov 22 | @ Detroit Lions (6-2) | 45% |
| 12 | Mon, Nov 30 | vs Carolina Panthers (3-5) | 65% |
| 13 | Sun, Dec 6 | vs Los Angeles Chargers (0-8) | 80% |
| 14 | Sun, Dec 13 | @ Baltimore Ravens (4-5) | 62% |
| 15 | Sun, Dec 20 | vs New Orleans Saints (3-5) | 69% |
| 16 | Sun, Dec 27 | @ Atlanta Falcons (3-6) | 55% |
| 17 | Sun, Jan 3 | vs Los Angeles Rams (5-4) | 57% |
| 18 | Sun, Jan 10 | @ New Orleans Saints (3-5) | 60% |
"Playoffs if W/L" = playoff odds in the simulations where the Buccaneers won or lost that game. A dash means the game barely moves their odds.
Who should Buccaneers fans root for in Week 10?
| Game | Root for | Odds if yes | Odds if no |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs @ Falcons | Kansas City Chiefs | 52% | 44% |
| Panthers @ Saints | New Orleans Saints | 50% | 47% |
| Vikings @ Packers | Minnesota Vikings | 49% | 48% |
| Texans @ Browns | Cleveland Browns | 49% | 48% |
What record gets the Buccaneers in?
Bars show how often the Buccaneers finish with each win total; the number above each bar is how often that record made the playoffs.
NFC South race
| Team | W-L | Div | Win div | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | 3-5 | 1-1 | 23% | 24% |
| New Orleans Saints | 3-5 | 0-1 | 15% | 16% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-6 | 2-0 | 47% | 48% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3-6 | 1-2 | 15% | 17% |
Predict the Buccaneers' season
Click W or L for each remaining game to see the final record and how often that record made the playoffs in our simulations. For every team at once, use the NFL playoff predictor.
2026 results
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | L 27-33 |
| 2 | vs Cleveland Browns | L 19-23 |
| 3 | vs Minnesota Vikings | L 16-23 |
| 4 | vs Green Bay Packers | L 14-17 |
| 5 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 24-16 |
| 6 | vs Pittsburgh Steelers | L 19-26 |
| 7 | @ Carolina Panthers | W 43-13 |
| 8 | vs Atlanta Falcons | W 16-0 |
| 9 | @ Chicago Bears | L 24-27 |
Frequently asked questions
Can the Tampa Bay Buccaneers still make the playoffs?
Yes. At 3-6, the Buccaneers make the playoffs in 48% of our 20,000 simulations of the remaining schedule.
What record do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers need to make the playoffs?
In our simulations the Buccaneers made the playoffs >99% of the time when they finished with 10 wins and 88% of the time with 9 wins. Their most likely final record is 8-9.
What are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' chances of winning the NFC South?
47%. Carolina Panthers lead the division at 3-5.
Who do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers play next?
At the Detroit Lions on November 22, 2026 (Week 11, Fox). Our model gives the Buccaneers a 45% chance to win.