New Orleans Saints Playoff Chances
The New Orleans Saints are 3-5 and are 2.5 games behind the final NFC wild-card spot (12th in the conference). Our model gives them a 16% chance to make the playoffs, 15% to win the NFC South and <1% to win Super Bowl LXI.
Updated · Standings include every game through Week 9 plus completed Week 10 games.
If the Saints miss the postseason, their average projected draft slot is No. 11.1, with a 18% chance at a top-5 pick and <1% at No. 1 (2027 draft order).
Remaining schedule and playoff odds by game
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sun, Nov 15 | vs Carolina Panthers (3-5) | 50% |
| 11 | Sun, Nov 22 | @ Chicago Bears (7-2) | 26% |
| 12 | Sun, Nov 29 | @ Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) | 23% |
| 13 | Sun, Dec 6 | vs Green Bay Packers (6-3) | 39% |
| 14 | Sun, Dec 13 | @ Carolina Panthers (3-5) | 41% |
| 15 | Sun, Dec 20 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6) | 31% |
| 16 | Sun, Dec 27 | vs Arizona Cardinals (3-6) | 61% |
| 17 | Sun, Jan 3 | @ Atlanta Falcons (3-6) | 40% |
| 18 | Sun, Jan 10 | vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6) | 40% |
"Playoffs if W/L" = playoff odds in the simulations where the Saints won or lost that game. A dash means the game barely moves their odds.
Who should Saints fans root for in Week 10?
| Game | Root for | Odds if yes | Odds if no |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs @ Falcons | Kansas City Chiefs | 17% | 14% |
What record gets the Saints in?
Bars show how often the Saints finish with each win total; the number above each bar is how often that record made the playoffs.
NFC South race
| Team | W-L | Div | Win div | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | 3-5 | 1-1 | 23% | 24% |
| New Orleans Saints | 3-5 | 0-1 | 15% | 16% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-6 | 2-0 | 47% | 48% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3-6 | 1-2 | 15% | 17% |
Predict the Saints' season
Click W or L for each remaining game to see the final record and how often that record made the playoffs in our simulations. For every team at once, use the NFL playoff predictor.
2026 results
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Detroit Lions | L 30-31 |
| 2 | @ Baltimore Ravens | W 24-17 |
| 3 | vs Las Vegas Raiders | L 27-35 |
| 4 | vs Atlanta Falcons | L 24-45 |
| 5 | vs Minnesota Vikings | L 13-23 |
| 6 | @ New York Giants | W 34-27 |
| 7 | vs Pittsburgh Steelers | L 10-16 |
| 9 | vs Cleveland Browns | W 23-22 |
Frequently asked questions
Can the New Orleans Saints still make the playoffs?
Yes. At 3-5, the Saints make the playoffs in 16% of our 20,000 simulations of the remaining schedule.
What record do the New Orleans Saints need to make the playoffs?
In our simulations the Saints made the playoffs 99% of the time when they finished with 10 wins and 74% of the time with 9 wins. Their most likely final record is 6-11.
What are the New Orleans Saints' chances of winning the NFC South?
15%. Carolina Panthers lead the division at 3-5.
Who do the New Orleans Saints play next?
Against the Carolina Panthers on November 15, 2026 (Week 10, Fox). Our model gives the Saints a 50% chance to win.