Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Chances
The Kansas City Chiefs are 6-2 and hold the No. 5 seed in the AFC as a wild card. Our model gives them a 90% chance to make the playoffs, 47% to win the AFC West and 6% to win Super Bowl LXI.
Updated · Standings include every game through Week 9 plus completed Week 10 games.
Remaining schedule and playoff odds by game
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sun, Nov 15 | @ Atlanta Falcons (3-6) | 59% |
| 11 | Sun, Nov 22 | vs Arizona Cardinals (3-6) | 78% |
| 12 | Thu, Nov 26 | @ Buffalo Bills (7-1) | 40% |
| 13 | Thu, Dec 3 | @ Los Angeles Rams (5-4) | 51% |
| 14 | Sun, Dec 13 | @ Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) | 40% |
| 15 | Mon, Dec 21 | vs New England Patriots (5-4) | 61% |
| 16 | Sun, Dec 27 | vs San Francisco 49ers (7-1) | 50% |
| 17 | Sun, Jan 3 | @ Los Angeles Chargers (0-8) | 76% |
| 18 | Sun, Jan 10 | vs Las Vegas Raiders (4-5) | 70% |
"Playoffs if W/L" = playoff odds in the simulations where the Chiefs won or lost that game. A dash means the game barely moves their odds.
Who should Chiefs fans root for in Week 10?
| Game | Root for | Odds if yes | Odds if no |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks @ Raiders | Seattle Seahawks | 91% | 89% |
| Patriots @ Lions | Detroit Lions | 91% | 89% |
What record gets the Chiefs in?
Bars show how often the Chiefs finish with each win total; the number above each bar is how often that record made the playoffs.
AFC West race
| Team | W-L | Div | Win div | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 7-2 | 2-1 | 50% | 90% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6-2 | 3-1 | 47% | 90% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4-5 | 1-1 | 3% | 18% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0-8 | 0-3 | 0% | <1% |
Predict the Chiefs' season
Click W or L for each remaining game to see the final record and how often that record made the playoffs in our simulations. For every team at once, use the NFL playoff predictor.
2026 results
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Denver Broncos | W 31-10 |
| 2 | vs Indianapolis Colts | W 33-30 |
| 3 | @ Miami Dolphins | W 24-10 |
| 4 | @ Las Vegas Raiders | W 30-27 |
| 6 | vs Los Angeles Chargers | W 22-6 |
| 7 | @ Seattle Seahawks | L 3-20 |
| 8 | @ Denver Broncos | L 24-28 |
| 9 | vs New York Jets | W 35-12 |
Frequently asked questions
Can the Kansas City Chiefs still make the playoffs?
Yes. At 6-2, the Chiefs make the playoffs in 90% of our 20,000 simulations of the remaining schedule.
What record do the Kansas City Chiefs need to make the playoffs?
In our simulations the Chiefs made the playoffs 95% of the time when they finished with 10 wins and 61% of the time with 9 wins. Their most likely final record is 11-6.
What are the Kansas City Chiefs' chances of winning the AFC West?
47%. Denver Broncos lead the division at 7-2.
Who do the Kansas City Chiefs play next?
At the Atlanta Falcons on November 15, 2026 (Week 10, CBS). Our model gives the Chiefs a 59% chance to win.