New England Patriots Playoff Chances
The New England Patriots are 5-4 and hold the No. 7 seed in the AFC as a wild card. Our model gives them a 63% chance to make the playoffs, 12% to win the AFC East and 2% to win Super Bowl LXI.
Updated · Standings include every game through Week 9 plus completed Week 10 games.
Remaining schedule and playoff odds by game
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sun, Nov 15 | @ Detroit Lions (6-2) | 48% |
| 12 | Sun, Nov 29 | @ Los Angeles Chargers (0-8) | 71% |
| 13 | Sun, Dec 6 | vs Buffalo Bills (7-1) | 44% |
| 14 | Thu, Dec 10 | vs Minnesota Vikings (6-2) | 51% |
| 15 | Mon, Dec 21 | @ Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) | 39% |
| 16 | Sun, Dec 27 | @ New York Jets (2-7) | 59% |
| 17 | Sun, Jan 3 | vs Denver Broncos (7-2) | 54% |
| 18 | Sun, Jan 10 | vs Miami Dolphins (1-7) | 72% |
"Playoffs if W/L" = playoff odds in the simulations where the Patriots won or lost that game. A dash means the game barely moves their odds.
Who should Patriots fans root for in Week 10?
| Game | Root for | Odds if yes | Odds if no |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks @ Raiders | Seattle Seahawks | 64% | 61% |
| Chiefs @ Falcons | Atlanta Falcons | 65% | 61% |
What record gets the Patriots in?
Bars show how often the Patriots finish with each win total; the number above each bar is how often that record made the playoffs.
AFC East race
| Team | W-L | Div | Win div | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 7-1 | 0-1 | 88% | 98% |
| New England Patriots | 5-4 | 3-0 | 12% | 63% |
| New York Jets | 2-7 | 0-2 | <1% | 1% |
| Miami Dolphins | 1-7 | 1-1 | <1% | <1% |
Predict the Patriots' season
Click W or L for each remaining game to see the final record and how often that record made the playoffs in our simulations. For every team at once, use the NFL playoff predictor.
2026 results
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Seattle Seahawks | L 10-13 |
| 2 | vs Pittsburgh Steelers | W 20-3 |
| 3 | @ Jacksonville Jaguars | L 6-35 |
| 4 | @ Buffalo Bills | W 29-26 |
| 5 | vs Las Vegas Raiders | W 45-17 |
| 6 | vs New York Jets | W 26-19 |
| 7 | @ Chicago Bears | L 24-30 |
| 8 | @ Miami Dolphins | W 24-19 |
| 9 | vs Green Bay Packers | L 27-45 |
Frequently asked questions
Can the New England Patriots still make the playoffs?
Yes. At 5-4, the Patriots make the playoffs in 63% of our 20,000 simulations of the remaining schedule.
What record do the New England Patriots need to make the playoffs?
In our simulations the Patriots made the playoffs 95% of the time when they finished with 10 wins and 61% of the time with 9 wins. Their most likely final record is 9-8.
What are the New England Patriots' chances of winning the AFC East?
12%. Buffalo Bills lead the division at 7-1.
Who do the New England Patriots play next?
At the Detroit Lions on November 15, 2026 (Week 10, Fox). Our model gives the Patriots a 48% chance to win.