Miami Dolphins Playoff Chances
The Miami Dolphins are 1-7 and are 3.5 games behind the final AFC wild-card spot (14th in the conference). Our model gives them a <1% chance to make the playoffs, <1% to win the AFC East and <1% to win Super Bowl LXI.
Updated · Standings include every game through Week 9 plus completed Week 10 games.
If the Dolphins miss the postseason, their average projected draft slot is No. 5.1, with a 65% chance at a top-5 pick and 11% at No. 1 (2027 draft order).
Remaining schedule and playoff odds by game
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sun, Nov 15 | @ Indianapolis Colts (2-7) | 42% |
| 11 | Sun, Nov 22 | @ Buffalo Bills (7-1) | 19% |
| 12 | Sun, Nov 29 | vs New York Jets (2-7) | 50% |
| 13 | Sun, Dec 6 | @ Denver Broncos (7-2) | 27% |
| 14 | Sun, Dec 13 | vs Chicago Bears (7-2) | 29% |
| 15 | Sun, Dec 20 | @ Green Bay Packers (6-3) | 25% |
| 16 | Sun, Dec 27 | vs Los Angeles Chargers (0-8) | 62% |
| 17 | Sun, Jan 3 | vs Buffalo Bills (7-1) | 26% |
| 18 | Sun, Jan 10 | @ New England Patriots (5-4) | 28% |
"Playoffs if W/L" = playoff odds in the simulations where the Dolphins won or lost that game. A dash means the game barely moves their odds.
What record gets the Dolphins in?
Bars show how often the Dolphins finish with each win total; the number above each bar is how often that record made the playoffs.
AFC East race
| Team | W-L | Div | Win div | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 7-1 | 0-1 | 88% | 98% |
| New England Patriots | 5-4 | 3-0 | 12% | 63% |
| New York Jets | 2-7 | 0-2 | <1% | 1% |
| Miami Dolphins | 1-7 | 1-1 | <1% | <1% |
Predict the Dolphins' season
Click W or L for each remaining game to see the final record and how often that record made the playoffs in our simulations. For every team at once, use the NFL playoff predictor.
2026 results
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Las Vegas Raiders | L 13-27 |
| 2 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 13-35 |
| 3 | vs Kansas City Chiefs | L 10-24 |
| 4 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 10-15 |
| 5 | vs Cincinnati Bengals | L 24-31 |
| 7 | @ New York Jets | W 28-25 |
| 8 | vs New England Patriots | L 19-24 |
| 9 | vs Detroit Lions | L 9-19 |
Frequently asked questions
Can the Miami Dolphins still make the playoffs?
Yes. At 1-7, the Dolphins make the playoffs in <1% of our 20,000 simulations of the remaining schedule.
What record do the Miami Dolphins need to make the playoffs?
The Dolphins would need to win nearly every remaining game; even their best simulated finishes rarely reached the playoffs.
What are the Miami Dolphins' chances of winning the AFC East?
<1%. Buffalo Bills lead the division at 7-1.
Who do the Miami Dolphins play next?
At the Indianapolis Colts on November 15, 2026 (Week 10, CBS). Our model gives the Dolphins a 42% chance to win.