NFL Playoff Odds 2026
Every team's chances to make the playoffs, win its division, earn the No. 1 seed, reach and win Super Bowl LXI, from 20,000 simulations of the remaining schedule.
Updated ยท Standings include every game through Week 9 plus completed Week 10 games.
| Team | W-L | Playoffs | Win div | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 7-1 | 98% | 88% | 11% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-2 | 98% | 93% | 14% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 7-1 | 97% | 88% | 14% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6-2 | 93% | 60% | 9% |
| Denver Broncos | 7-2 | 90% | 50% | 4% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6-2 | 90% | 47% | 6% |
| Chicago Bears | 7-2 | 87% | 32% | 8% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-2 | 84% | 36% | 4% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-2 | 82% | 29% | 6% |
| Detroit Lions | 6-2 | 75% | 26% | 5% |
| Green Bay Packers | 6-3 | 68% | 13% | 4% |
| New England Patriots | 5-4 | 63% | 12% | 2% |
| New York Giants | 5-3-1 | 60% | 58% | 1% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-6 | 48% | 47% | 3% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5-4 | 45% | 8% | 2% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 5-4 | 34% | 4% | 2% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 4-5 | 33% | 30% | 1% |
| Cleveland Browns | 5-4 | 30% | 4% | <1% |
| Houston Texans | 3-5 | 25% | 6% | 1% |
| Carolina Panthers | 3-5 | 24% | 23% | 1% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4-5 | 18% | 3% | <1% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3-6 | 17% | 15% | 1% |
| New Orleans Saints | 3-5 | 16% | 15% | <1% |
| Washington Commanders | 3-5-1 | 13% | 11% | <1% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 4-5 | 8% | 1% | <1% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3-6 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| New York Jets | 2-7 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2-7 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2-7 | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| Miami Dolphins | 1-7 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Tennessee Titans | 1-7 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0-8 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
Click a column to sort. Projected wins = average final win total across simulations. How the model works.
Odds by division
AFC East
| Buffalo Bills | 7-1 | 88% |
| New England Patriots | 5-4 | 12% |
| New York Jets | 2-7 | <1% |
| Miami Dolphins | 1-7 | <1% |
AFC North
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6-2 | 60% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-2 | 36% |
| Cleveland Browns | 5-4 | 4% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 4-5 | 1% |
AFC South
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-2 | 93% |
| Houston Texans | 3-5 | 6% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2-7 | <1% |
| Tennessee Titans | 1-7 | <1% |
AFC West
| Denver Broncos | 7-2 | 50% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6-2 | 47% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4-5 | 3% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0-8 | 0% |
NFC East
| New York Giants | 5-3-1 | 58% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 4-5 | 30% |
| Washington Commanders | 3-5-1 | 11% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2-7 | 1% |
NFC North
| Chicago Bears | 7-2 | 32% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-2 | 29% |
| Detroit Lions | 6-2 | 26% |
| Green Bay Packers | 6-3 | 13% |
NFC South
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-6 | 47% |
| Carolina Panthers | 3-5 | 23% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3-6 | 15% |
| New Orleans Saints | 3-5 | 15% |
NFC West
| San Francisco 49ers | 7-1 | 88% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5-4 | 8% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 5-4 | 4% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3-6 | <1% |
Frequently asked questions
How are these NFL playoff odds calculated?
We rate every team from its scoring margin this season, adjusted for opponent strength and home field, then simulate the remaining schedule 20,000 times. Each simulation applies the official tiebreakers and plays out the playoffs. A team's odds are the share of simulations in which it reached each milestone.
Are these betting odds?
No. They are model probabilities for fans, not sportsbook lines, and they are not betting advice.
Which team is most likely to get the No. 1 seed?
AFC: Buffalo Bills (33%). NFC: San Francisco 49ers (47%).