Washington Commanders Playoff Chances
The Washington Commanders are 3-5-1 and are 2.5 games behind the final NFC wild-card spot (11th in the conference). Our model gives them a 13% chance to make the playoffs, 11% to win the NFC East and <1% to win Super Bowl LXI.
Updated · Standings include every game through Week 9 plus completed Week 10 games.
If the Commanders miss the postseason, their average projected draft slot is No. 11.3, with a 13% chance at a top-5 pick and <1% at No. 1 (2027 draft order).
Remaining schedule and playoff odds by game
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mon, Nov 23 | vs Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) | 31% |
| 12 | Sun, Nov 29 | @ Arizona Cardinals (3-6) | 52% |
| 13 | Sun, Dec 6 | @ Tennessee Titans (1-7) | 54% |
| 14 | Sun, Dec 13 | vs Houston Texans (3-5) | 43% |
| 15 | Sun, Dec 20 | vs Atlanta Falcons (3-6) | 50% |
| 16 | Sun, Dec 27 | @ Minnesota Vikings (6-2) | 29% |
| 17 | Sun, Jan 3 | @ Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) | 20% |
| 18 | Sun, Jan 10 | vs Dallas Cowboys (4-5) | 47% |
"Playoffs if W/L" = playoff odds in the simulations where the Commanders won or lost that game. A dash means the game barely moves their odds.
Who should Commanders fans root for in Week 10?
| Game | Root for | Odds if yes | Odds if no |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers @ Cowboys | San Francisco 49ers | 15% | 9% |
| Steelers @ Bengals | Pittsburgh Steelers | 13% | 12% |
| Chiefs @ Falcons | Kansas City Chiefs | 13% | 12% |
What record gets the Commanders in?
Bars show how often the Commanders finish with each win total; the number above each bar is how often that record made the playoffs.
NFC East race
| Team | W-L | Div | Win div | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 5-3-1 | 2-1-1 | 58% | 60% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 4-5 | 2-1 | 30% | 33% |
| Washington Commanders | 3-5-1 | 2-2-1 | 11% | 13% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2-7 | 1-3 | 1% | 1% |
Predict the Commanders' season
Click W or L for each remaining game to see the final record and how often that record made the playoffs in our simulations. For every team at once, use the NFL playoff predictor.
2026 results
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 22-24 |
| 2 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 20-37 |
| 3 | vs Seattle Seahawks | W 33-31 |
| 4 | vs Indianapolis Colts | L 13-30 |
| 5 | vs New York Giants | T 27-27 |
| 6 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 17-23 |
| 8 | vs Philadelphia Eagles | W 27-10 |
| 9 | vs Los Angeles Rams | L 13-20 |
| 10 | @ New York Giants | W 24-21 |
Frequently asked questions
Can the Washington Commanders still make the playoffs?
Yes. At 3-5-1, the Commanders make the playoffs in 13% of our 20,000 simulations of the remaining schedule.
What record do the Washington Commanders need to make the playoffs?
In our simulations the Commanders made the playoffs 98% of the time when they finished with 10 wins and 74% of the time with 9 wins. Their most likely final record is 6-10-1.
What are the Washington Commanders' chances of winning the NFC East?
11%. New York Giants lead the division at 5-3-1.
Who do the Washington Commanders play next?
Against the Cincinnati Bengals on November 23, 2026 (Week 11, ESPN). Our model gives the Commanders a 31% chance to win.