Atlanta Falcons Playoff Chances
The Atlanta Falcons are 3-6 and are 3.0 games behind the final NFC wild-card spot (14th in the conference). Our model gives them a 17% chance to make the playoffs, 15% to win the NFC South and 1% to win Super Bowl LXI.
Updated · Standings include every game through Week 9 plus completed Week 10 games.
If the Falcons miss the postseason, their average projected draft slot is No. 12.4, with a 10% chance at a top-5 pick and <1% at No. 1 (2027 draft order).
Remaining schedule and playoff odds by game
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sun, Nov 15 | vs Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) | 41% |
| 12 | Sun, Nov 29 | @ Minnesota Vikings (6-2) | 34% |
| 13 | Sun, Dec 6 | vs Detroit Lions (6-2) | 45% |
| 14 | Sun, Dec 13 | @ Cleveland Browns (5-4) | 50% |
| 15 | Sun, Dec 20 | @ Washington Commanders (3-5-1) | 50% |
| 16 | Sun, Dec 27 | vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6) | 45% |
| 17 | Sun, Jan 3 | vs New Orleans Saints (3-5) | 60% |
| 18 | Sun, Jan 10 | @ Carolina Panthers (3-5) | 47% |
"Playoffs if W/L" = playoff odds in the simulations where the Falcons won or lost that game. A dash means the game barely moves their odds.
Who should Falcons fans root for in Week 10?
| Game | Root for | Odds if yes | Odds if no |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots @ Lions | New England Patriots | 17% | 16% |
| Panthers @ Saints | New Orleans Saints | 17% | 16% |
| Dolphins @ Colts | Miami Dolphins | 17% | 16% |
What record gets the Falcons in?
Bars show how often the Falcons finish with each win total; the number above each bar is how often that record made the playoffs.
NFC South race
| Team | W-L | Div | Win div | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | 3-5 | 1-1 | 23% | 24% |
| New Orleans Saints | 3-5 | 0-1 | 15% | 16% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-6 | 2-0 | 47% | 48% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3-6 | 1-2 | 15% | 17% |
Predict the Falcons' season
Click W or L for each remaining game to see the final record and how often that record made the playoffs in our simulations. For every team at once, use the NFL playoff predictor.
2026 results
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 13-20 |
| 2 | vs Carolina Panthers | L 3-34 |
| 3 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 35-14 |
| 4 | @ New Orleans Saints | W 45-24 |
| 5 | vs Baltimore Ravens | L 23-30 |
| 6 | vs Chicago Bears | L 23-31 |
| 7 | vs San Francisco 49ers | W 29-20 |
| 8 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L 0-16 |
| 9 | vs Cincinnati Bengals | L 17-34 |
Frequently asked questions
Can the Atlanta Falcons still make the playoffs?
Yes. At 3-6, the Falcons make the playoffs in 17% of our 20,000 simulations of the remaining schedule.
What record do the Atlanta Falcons need to make the playoffs?
In our simulations the Falcons made the playoffs 99% of the time when they finished with 10 wins and 71% of the time with 9 wins. Their most likely final record is 7-10.
What are the Atlanta Falcons' chances of winning the NFC South?
15%. Carolina Panthers lead the division at 3-5.
Who do the Atlanta Falcons play next?
Against the Kansas City Chiefs on November 15, 2026 (Week 10, CBS). Our model gives the Falcons a 41% chance to win.