Miami Heat Playoff Chances 2026-27
The Miami Heat are 7-6, 5th in the East, in line for a direct playoff spot. They make the playoffs in 68% of our simulations and win the NBA title in 1%.
Updated · Through games of November 14, 2026 · 13 of 80 games played per team on average
68%Make playoffs
47%Top 6 (no play-in)
10%Reach conf. finals
1%Win NBA title
40-40Projected record
18thPower rating rank
67Games left (34 home)
W4Streak
Next 10 games
| Date | Opponent | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, Nov 16 | vs Houston Rockets (10-3) | 40% |
| Wed, Nov 18 | vs Milwaukee Bucks (1-12) | 76% |
| Sun, Nov 22 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder (8-5) | 48% |
| Wed, Nov 25 | @ Philadelphia 76ers (10-3) | 38% |
| Fri, Nov 27 | @ New York Knicks (6-6) | 34% |
| Sun, Nov 29 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers (7-7) | 37% |
| Tue, Dec 1 | vs Atlanta Hawks (7-5) | 58% |
| Thu, Dec 3 | vs Washington Wizards (4-8) | 66% |
| Sat, Dec 12 | vs New York Knicks (6-6) | 49% |
| Mon, Dec 14 | @ Chicago Bulls (3-9) | 53% |
Southeast standings
| Team | W-L | Playoffs | Win div |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 7-5 | 68% | 39% |
| Miami Heat | 7-6 | 68% | 38% |
| Orlando Magic | 5-6 | 39% | 14% |
| Charlotte Hornets | 4-8 | 12% | 3% |
| Washington Wizards | 4-8 | 23% | 6% |
Playoff path
| Milestone | Chance |
|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 68% |
| Finish top six | 47% |
| Play-in (7th–10th) | 38% |
| Win a first-round series | 27% |
| Reach the conference finals | 10% |
| Reach the NBA Finals | 4% |
| Win the NBA title | 1% |
Frequently asked questions
Will the Miami Heat make the playoffs?
Our model gives the Heat a 68% chance to make the 2027 NBA playoffs, including a 47% chance to finish in the top six and avoid the play-in. They are 7-6 and 5th in the East, in line for a direct playoff spot.
What are the Miami Heat' chances to win the NBA title?
1%, with a 4% chance to reach the NBA Finals.
What is the Miami Heat' projected record?
About 40-40, based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule.